Robust detection and attribution of climate change under interventions

Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be assigned to specific external drivers (attribution). We propose a direct D&A approach based on supervised learning to extract fingerprints that lead to robust predictions under relevant interventions on exogenous variables, i.e., climate drivers other than the target. We employ anchor regression, a distributionally-robust statistical learning method inspired by causal inference that extrapolates well to perturbed data under the interventions considered. The residuals from the prediction achieve either uncorrelatedness or mean independence with the exogenous variables, thus guaranteeing robustness. We define D&A as a unified hypothesis testing framework that relies on the same statistical model but uses different targets and test statistics. In the experiments, we first show that the CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature spatial patterns under strong interventions on the solar forcing. Second, we illustrate attribution to the greenhouse gases and aerosols while protecting against interventions on the aerosols and CO2 forcing, respectively. Our study shows that incorporating robustness constraints against relevant interventions may significantly benefit detection and attribution of climate change

Cystás fibrosisban szenvedő betegek életminőségének felmérése Magyarországon

Bevezetés: A cystás fibrosis progresszív genetikai betegség, amely korlátozhatja a betegek mindennapi életét, befolyásolja életminőségüket. Célkitűzés: A szerzők célul tűzték ki a hazai cystás fibrosisban szenvedő betegek életminőségének felmérését. Módszer: Az életminőség értékelésére betegségspecifikus kérdőív (The Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire – Revised) magyar nyelvre validált változatát alkalmazták. A betegség súlyossági állapotát Shwachman–Kulczycki-pontszám segítségével határozták meg. Spirometriai vizsgálat is történt. Eredmények: A vizsgálatban 59 beteg (átlagéletkor 14,03±4,8 év) vett részt öt magyarországi centrumból. A 8–13 éves korosztályban a gyermekek és szüleik válaszai között a következő korrelációkat állapították meg: fizikai aktivitás = 0,77 (p<0,001); érzelmi állapot = 0,07 (p<0,001); étkezési zavarok = 0,51 (p<0,001); kezelés terhe = 0,21 (p<0,001); testkép = 0,54 (p<0,001); légúti tünetek = 0,49 (p<0,001); emésztési tünetek = 0,40 (p<0,001). Következtetések: A gyermekkori életminőség felmérése során a gyermekek és szüleik véleménye szorosan megegyezett azokban a dimenziókban, amelyek a fizikális területre vonatkoztak, azonban a pszichoszociális doménekben lényeges különbségek voltak mérhetők. Cystás fibrosisos gyermekek életminőség-vizsgálata során mind a gyermekek, mind a szülők véleményének figyelembevétele ajánlott. Orv. Hetil., 2013, 154, 784–791. | Introduction: Cystic fibrosis is a progressive multisystemic disease which affects the quality of life of patients. Aim: The aim of the study was to evaluate quality of life in Hungarian patients with cystic fibrosis. Methods: Validated Hungarian translation of The Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire – Revised was used to measure quality of life. Clinical severity was determined on the basis of Shwachman–Kulczycki score. Lung function was measured using spirometry. Results: 59 patients were included from five centres in Hungary. The relationships between 8–13 year-old children self-report and parent proxy report was 0.77 (p<0.001) in physical functioning, 0.07 (p<0.001) in emotional functioning, 0.51 (p<0.001) in eating, 0.21 (p<0.001) in treatment burden, 0.54 (p<0.001) in body image, 0.49 (p<0.001) in respiratory symptoms and 0.40 (p<0.001) in digestive symptoms domains. Conclusions: In contrast to physical domains weak correlations were observed between answers obtained from children and their parents in psychosocial domains. The perception of both patients and their parents should be assessed when measuring quality of life in paediatric patients with cystic fibrosis. Orv. Hetil., 2013, 154, 784–791

A társadalmi tanulási folyamatok szerepe a megújuló energiahordozókkal kapcsolatos ismeretekben két magyarországi megye példáján

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Oxytocin receptor gene polymorphisms are associated with human directed social behavior in dogs (Canis familiaris)

The oxytocin system has a crucial role in human sociality; several results prove that polymorphisms of the oxytocin receptor gene are related to complex social behaviors in humans. Dogs' parallel evolution with humans and their adaptation to the human environment has made them a useful species to model human social interactions. Previous research indicates that dogs are eligible models for behavioral genetic research, as well. Based on these previous findings, our research investigated associations between human directed social behaviors and two newly described (−212AG, 19131AG) and one known (rs8679684) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the regulatory regions (5′ and 3′ UTR) of the oxytocin receptor gene in German Shepherd (N = 104) and Border Collie (N = 103) dogs. Dogs' behavior traits have been estimated in a newly developed test series consisting of five episodes: Greeting by a stranger, Separation from the owner, Problem solving, Threatening approach, Hiding of the owner. Buccal samples were collected and DNA was isolated using standard protocols. SNPs in the 3′ and 5′ UTR regions were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction based techniques followed by subsequent electrophoresis analysis. The gene–behavior association analysis suggests that oxytocin receptor gene polymorphisms have an impact in both breeds on (i) proximity seeking towards an unfamiliar person, as well as their owner, and on (ii) how friendly dogs behave towards strangers, although the mediating molecular regulatory mechanisms are yet unknown. Based on these results, we conclude that similarly to humans, the social behavior of dogs towards humans is influenced by the oxytocin system

HUNCHEST-II contributes to a shift to earlier-stage lung cancer detection: final results of a nationwide screening program

The introduction of low-dose CT (LDCT) altered the landscape of lung cancer (LC) screening and contributed to the reduction of mortality rates worldwide. Here we report the final results of HUNCHEST-II, the largest population-based LDCT screening program in Hungary, including the screening and diagnostic outcomes, and the characteristics of the LC cases.A total of 4215 high-risk individuals aged between 50 and 75 years with a smoking history of at least 25 pack-years were assigned to undergo LDCT screening. Screening outcomes were determined based on the volume, growth, and volume doubling time of pulmonary nodules or masses. The clinical stage distribution of screen-detected cancers was compared with two independent practice-based databases consisting of unscreened LC patients.The percentage of negative and indeterminate tests at baseline were 74.2% and 21.7%, respectively, whereas the prevalence of positive LDCT results was 4.1%. Overall, 76 LC patients were diagnosed throughout the screening rounds (1.8% of total participants), out of which 62 (1.5%) patients were already identified in the first screening round. The overall positive predictive value of a positive test was 58%. Most screen-detected malignancies were stage I LCs (60.7%), and only 16.4% of all cases could be classified as stage IV disease. The percentage of early-stage malignancies was significantly higher among HUNCHEST-II screen-detected individuals than among the LC patients in the National Koranyi Institute of Pulmonology's archive or the Hungarian Cancer Registry (p < 0.001).HUNCHEST-II demonstrates that LDCT screening for LC facilitates early diagnosis, thus arguing in favor of introducing systematic LC screening in Hungary.HUNCHEST-II is the so-far largest population-based low-dose CT screening program in Hungary. A positive test's overall positive predictive value was 58%, and most screen-detected malignancies were early-stage lesions. These results pave the way for expansive systematic screening in the region.• Conducted in 18 medical facilities, HUNCHEST-II is the so far largest population-based low-dose CT screening program in Hungary. • The vast majority of screen-detected malignancies were early-stage lung cancers, and the overall positive predictive value of a positive test was 58%. • HUNCHEST-II facilitates early diagnosis, thus arguing in favor of introducing systematic lung cancer screening in Hungary